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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd