How The Strange Campaign Redefined the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.
However this year's field is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.
Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.
The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this is not a normal year!
The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.
After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.
The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
