Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.
Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.
A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict
The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.
Analysts note the junta, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.
"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.
Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.
Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.
Logistical Nightmare and Pressure
Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.
The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from China and Russia.
All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.
A Restricted Poll
Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.
There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.
A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.
Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.
International Condemnation
"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.
Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.
The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".
"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.
Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".
